Morgan Stanley Projects $115B E-Commerce Lift From AI Agents

Artificial intelligence (AI)-powered personal shopping assistants could become a major force in e-commerce over the next five years, potentially driving up to $385 billion in U.S. online sales by 2030, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley Research. Technology companies have designed these autonomous digital tools, which they refer to as agentic shoppers, to operate continuously. The agentic shoppers scan retailers’ websites for hard-to-find products, comparing prices and anticipating recurring purchases with little or no user input.

“Agentic will be a paradigm shift for e-commerce,” Nathan Feather, an analyst who covers small- and mid-cap internet companies at Morgan Stanley, said in the report. “With greater digitization of consumers’ wallets, this could shake up the e-commerce funnel with implications across retailers and digital advertising players.”

Agentic commerce remains in the early stages of development, but usage trends are building, the firm said. Nearly 23% of Americans made at least one AI-assisted purchase in the past month, based on responses to the firm’s AlphaWise consumer survey. Adoption of large language model (LLM) platforms is nearing 50% of U.S. consumers, signaling growing comfort with AI-enabled shopping tools.

Morgan Stanley projects that the use of artificial intelligence (AI)-based shopping agents will grow rapidly and reshape the online retail landscape in the United States. According to Business Insider, in its latest note, the company estimates that nearly half of US e-commerce consumers will be using AI agents by 2030.

Categories Driving Agentic Commerce

Grocery and consumer packaged goods currently lead AI-driven purchase behavior, according to the survey. The firm's analysts said those categories could be the fastest-growing opportunities for agentic commerce through 2030 because of their frequency and focus on replenishment.

Morgan Stanley believes personalized grocery shopping could be the main driver of agentic commerce growth, followed by household products, personal care, and fashion.

Economic Impact Projections

Morgan Stanley estimates agentic shoppers could account for 10% to 20% of U.S. ecommerce spending by the end of the decade. Agentic commerce technology, which can recommend products, compare prices, and manage orders, is predicted to add up to US$115 billion in US online spending.

“We believe that agentic commerce, essentially the ability to have a personal interactive digital shopper, will be the next substantial GenAI unlock,” wrote the firm. They consider that the digitalization of consumer wallets will further drive the adoption of this technology and disrupt e-commerce flows.

Morgan Stanley wrote in a note recently that AI shopping agents will transform the online retail landscape over the next few years, predicting that nearly half of all US e-commerce shoppers will use AI agents by 2030.

Retailers Race to Launch Tools

Competition in launching AI shopping assistants is intensifying. Amazon has Rufus, Walmart has introduced Sparky, while Target has integrated ChatGPT. OpenAI has also expanded ChatGPT’s shopping capabilities with a shopping research feature. Google has added a function enabling AI to call local shops for users.

Google has also enhanced its AI shopping tools ahead of the holiday season, debuting an AI assistant that can call local stores on a user’s behalf. OpenAI deepened ChatGPT's agentic AI-powered shopping capabilities recently, adding a shopping research feature to help users find the best products for their needs.

Among all, Amazon is cited as an aggressive early player through Rufus, which is expected to contribute more than US$700 million in operating profit this year. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy previously stated that Rufus is on track to generate US$10 billion in incremental annualised sales, although he admitted the user experience still needs improvement. “We are very excited about the long-term prospects of agentic commerce,” said Jassy.

That growth would have ripple effects across the digital economy, including how retailers compete for visibility within AI-driven recommendations and how advertisers reach consumers. “To reach widespread adoption, companies first need to develop products, and consumer habits have to evolve,” said Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley’s head of U.S. internet research. “But it also underscores the risks and opportunities for retailers partnering with these bigger platforms.”

As major online retailers and technology companies continue to embed AI into their shopping experiences, Morgan Stanley said the shift toward automated buying appears increasingly likely and its impact increasingly significant. With agentic commerce predicted to add up to US$115 billion to US online spending, Morgan Stanley believes the expansion of AI shopping agents could redefine how consumers interact with ecommerce platforms and how retailers compete for attention and sales.